Pessimism bias is a cognitive bias where people tend to overestimate the likelihood of negative events happening to them and underestimate the likelihood of positive events. In other words, people generally believe that they are more likely to experience bad things and less likely to experience good things compared to others.

Here are two simple examples to help you understand pessimism bias:

1. Job Interviews: Imagine you've just completed a job interview and felt like you did well. However, you can't shake the feeling that you won't get the job because you believe that you always have bad luck in these situations. This belief is an example of pessimism bias, as you overestimate the likelihood of a negative outcome (not getting the job) despite evidence suggesting that you performed well.

2. Travel plans: Suppose you have an upcoming vacation, and you're worried that it will rain the entire time, even though the weather forecast indicates a low chance of rain. This worry is another example of pessimism bias, as you're overestimating the likelihood of a negative event (rain during your vacation) and underestimating the possibility of a positive event (enjoying sunny weather).

Pessimism bias can lead to a distorted perception of reality, resulting in excessive worry, stress, and poor decision-making. Being aware of pessimism bias can help individuals make more balanced and realistic assessments of their own situations, considering both positive and negative outcomes.

Pessimism bias, sometimes referred to as defensive pessimism, is a cognitive bias in which individuals overestimate the likelihood of negative events and underestimate the likelihood of positive events occurring in their lives. This bias can affect decision-making, risk perception, and overall well-being, leading to distorted judgments and suboptimal choices.

Pessimism bias is related to several other psychological principles, cognitive biases, and scientific fields, including:

1. Depressive realism: A phenomenon where individuals with mild to moderate depression show more accurate judgments of their control over events and outcomes, as opposed to non-depressed individuals who may exhibit an optimism bias. Pessimism bias can be seen as the inverse of optimism bias and may be more pronounced in individuals experiencing depressive symptoms.

2. Negativity bias: A cognitive bias where negative events, experiences, or emotions have a more significant impact on individuals' psychological state and decision-making than positive ones. Negativity bias can contribute to pessimism bias, as people may place a higher weight on potential negative outcomes when evaluating their future.

3. Confirmation bias: A cognitive bias where individuals seek, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms their pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. Confirmation bias can reinforce pessimism bias, as individuals may selectively focus on information that supports their pessimistic views and disregard information that contradicts them.

4. Self-handicapping: A self-protective strategy where individuals create obstacles for themselves to provide an excuse for potential failure. Pessimism bias can lead to self-handicapping, as individuals may anticipate negative outcomes and create barriers to justify their pessimistic expectations.

Pessimism bias has implications for various domains, such as mental health, interpersonal relationships, and career success, where accurate risk perception and planning are crucial. Understanding pessimism bias and its connections to other cognitive biases can help individuals make more balanced and realistic assessments of their own situations, considering both positive and negative outcomes.

References

• Alloy, L. B., & Abramson, L. Y. (1979). Judgment of contingency in depressed and nondepressed students: Sadder but wiser? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108(4), 441-485.
• Rozin, P., & Royzman, E. B. (2001). Negativity bias, negativity dominance, and contagion. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(4), 296-320.
• Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
• Jones, E. E., & Berglas, S. (1978). Control of attributions about the self through self-handicapping strategies: The appeal of alcohol and the role of underachievement. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 4(2), 200-206.

More Resources

• The Wisdom of Pessimism
• Is the Glass Half Empty