False consensus is a psychological phenomenon where people overestimate the extent to which others share their opinions, beliefs, or behaviors. In other words, individuals tend to believe that their views or actions are more common or popular than they actually are. This bias occurs because people often surround themselves with like-minded individuals, which can create an echo chamber effect and lead them to assume that their perspective is the norm.

Here are two simple examples to help you understand false consensus:

1. Political views: Imagine you hold strong opinions about a particular political issue, and most of your friends and family members share your views. You might assume that the majority of people in your country or region also share the same perspective, when in reality, public opinion might be much more diverse or even lean in the opposite direction.

2. Food pReferences: Let's say you're a vegetarian and have many vegetarian friends. You might overestimate the number of vegetarians in the general population, believing it to be more common than it is, because your immediate social circle reflects your dietary choices.

Being aware of the false consensus effect can help individuals recognize that their views and experiences may not be as universally shared as they might think, promoting more open-mindedness and a willingness to consider alternative perspectives.

False consensus is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the extent to which their own beliefs, preferences, values, or behaviors are shared by others (Ross, Greene, & House, 1977). This bias can be driven by various factors, such as the need for social validation, selective exposure to like-minded individuals, and the tendency to rely on one's own perspective as an information source.

False consensus is related to several other principles and scientific topics, including:

1. Social comparison theory: A theoretical framework positing that individuals evaluate their own abilities and opinions by comparing themselves to others (Festinger, 1954). False consensus can be understood in the context of social comparison theory, as people may use their own views and behaviors as a reference point when estimating the prevalence of these attributes in the broader population.

2. Confirmation bias: A cognitive bias where individuals seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms their existing beliefs while ignoring or dismissing evidence that contradicts those beliefs (Nickerson, 1998). False consensus and confirmation bias can interact, as people may be more likely to seek out and remember instances where others share their views or behaviors, further reinforcing their overestimation of consensus.

3. Availability heuristic: A mental shortcut where individuals estimate the likelihood or frequency of an event based on the ease with which relevant examples come to mind (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). The false consensus effect can be influenced by the availability heuristic, as people may rely on the most easily accessible information (e.g., their own opinions and the opinions of like-minded individuals) when estimating the prevalence of certain beliefs or behaviors.

4. Group polarization: A phenomenon where group members' attitudes become more extreme after discussing a topic with like-minded individuals (Myers & Lamm, 1976). False consensus can contribute to group polarization, as people may overestimate the degree of agreement within their group and become more convinced of the correctness of their views.

Understanding false consensus and its connections to other psychological principles can help researchers, decision-makers, and individuals recognize and mitigate the impact of this bias on their judgments, decision-making processes, and interactions with others.

References

• Festinger, L. (1954). A theory of social comparison processes. Human Relations, 7(2), 117-140.
• Myers, D. G., & Lamm, H. (1976). The group polarization phenomenon. Psychological Bulletin, 83(4), 602-627.
• Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
• Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13(3), 279-301.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207-232.